As the war enters another critical phase in 2026, a growing number of analysts suggest that the battlefield dynamics between Ukraine and Russia are beginning to shift, not in the form of a decisive breakthrough, but as a gradual erosion of Russia’s earlier advantages and a strengthening of Ukraine’s long-term position.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces captured 104 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory between the start of 2026 and May 26, compared with 1,619 square kilometers over the same period in 2025, indicating a sharp year-on-year decline in the pace of Russian gains.
At the same time, Ukrainian open-source intelligence project DeepState reports that Russia has recently suffered localized setbacks. The group estimated that Russian forces lost around 40 square kilometers in areas around Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk in a single week, marking what it described as Moscow’s largest weekly territorial loss since late 2023. DeepState also assessed that Russia captured only around 20 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in May 2026, the lowest monthly total since the fall of 2023, underscoring what analysts describe as a continued deceleration in offensive momentum.
DeepState further reports that Ukrainian forces have recently made gains in parts of the southern Donetsk region, as well as sections of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk, reflecting a more dynamic and fluid frontline than in previous phases of the war.
Ukrainian military analyst Ivan Stupak identified the Zaporizhzhia direction as one of the key active fronts, noting that Russian forces have been pushed back from approaches to within roughly 20 kilometers of the regional capital, a city with a pre-war population of around 700,000. Stupak also said that the coming months are likely to see intensified fighting around Kostiantynivka, which he described as a critical urban center in Donetsk region. The town is one of three major Ukrainian-held cities in the area, alongside Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. He assessed that Russia currently has limited prospects of reaching Kramatorsk or Sloviansk this year, adding that capturing Kostiantynivka in 2026 would represent a “huge achievement” for Moscow under current conditions. At the current tempo of operations, he added, major fighting for Sloviansk and Kramatorsk is unlikely to begin before next spring.
Taken together, the data points to a war that is not decisively shifting in one direction, but is instead entering a phase of slower, more contested movement — where incremental territorial changes come at high cost and over extended periods. For Ukraine, the combination of slowing Russian advances, localized counterattacks, and sustained defense of key urban areas is increasingly framed by analysts as evidence of a more stable frontline dynamic compared to earlier phases of the invasion. However, despite signs of strain on Russian offensive capacity, the war remains defined by attrition, and neither side has achieved a decisive breakthrough capable of fundamentally altering the strategic balance. Whether the current trajectory represents a genuine turning point or simply a temporary operational pause remains one of the central questions shaping expectations for the remainder of 2026.
Nadis Lemko
