June 29, 2026
DIANE FRANCIS
On June 25, Ukraine launched a 40-day campaign to bombard Russia and end the war. Kyiv is also crushing Crimea and has bullied Belarus. But the biggest development is that Ukraine is also about to join the “ballistic missile club”. This refers to the elite group of nations with the technology, engineering, and guidance systems to operate intercontinental ballistic missiles as well as to detect and destroy them. The Club includes the nuclear powers U.S., Russia, China, France, India, the United Kingdom, Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea. Ukraine has already mastered and perfected drone and short-range missile technology, but will shortly roll out high-speed, lethal ballistic capability for any kind of warhead. Teams are fine-tuning and testing these weapons, and, as one official noted, “They will be ready in a few months and are faster and more powerful, and when they begin to attack Russia, it will be the game-changer.”
Ballistic weapons are difficult to stop and will single-handedly enhance Ukraine’s leverage by putting Russia “in defense mode rather than attack mode”, explained an official. They travel at the speed of sound, then leave the atmosphere before heading down at targets. The Ukrainian version won’t carry nukes but will deliver big payloads that will be as difficult to identify and neutralize as are Russia’s ballistic attacks on Ukraine. The mastery of this technology will also bolster Ukraine’s self-defenses too, which relies on American Patriots to stop Russia’s ballistic missiles. Ukraine’s Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov emphasized the significance of this leap in technology. “Ukrainian ballistic missiles will change everything in this war. It will fundamentally change Ukraine’s status in the world. We’ve changed it many times before, but this is an entirely different league.”
Since the 2022 invasion, Kyiv has been dependent on weapons handouts by Western allies, who balked at providing ballistic or even shorter-range “cruise-type” missiles. So Ukraine’s tech and engineering sectors devised world-beating drones to compensate, then, last year, rolled out their own long-range Flamingo missile with a range that matches America’s Tomahawk. Now they will have ballistic versions, which will be faster, more powerful, and will target Russia’s cities, missile factories, and energy sector in the coming months.
However, Ukraine still faces a stalemate at the war front due to Russia’s use of “meat wave assaults”. This is a military tactic where successive, overwhelming waves of expendable infantry are unleashed to attack enemy positions. The goal is to swamp the defenders by sheer numbers, sacrificing soldiers in order to wear down ammunition and to slowly grind forward into enemy territory. To counteract this, Ukraine invented digitized “kill zones” where drones hunt and kill the enemy. Recently, it has had to ratchet up its “kill zone” rates due to the growing influx of North Korean and Chinese being hired by Moscow to fight Ukraine.
Currently, eight times more Russian soldiers are wounded or killed than Ukrainians, hitting a record of 35,000 in March. But the goal now is to hit 50,000 per month to reduce the size of Russia’s occupation army. To accomplish this, Ukraine is scaling up its production of low-cost loitering munitions and interceptor drones to meet the needed “attrition rate” because Russia has been recruiting thousands of soldiers for its “meat wave” on Chinese social media, offering signing bonuses of $21,000 and monthly salaries of $2,400.
Fortunately, a diplomatic game-changer is underway as the war grinds on inside Russia and opinions shift in favor of Ukraine and against a Moscow that bombs cathedrals and kindergartens. Moscow flails as its refining and processing facilities and economy are being destroyed by its smaller, victimized neighbor. It’s now importing gasoline in some regions from India. Besides, Putin’s pride and joy, Crimea, is under attack, without fuel, has declared a state of emergency, and half of his Russian fleet has been driven out. In recent days, Zelensky also threatened, then forced Putin’s puppet regime in Belarus to stop giving radio relay assistance to Moscow for its drones.
The stage is being set. President Donald Trump’s war in Iran has “ended,” and he has declared that ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict is his highest priority. During the recent G7 summit in mid-June, Trump and Zelensky met on the sidelines and also debunked the so-called “Anchorage Understanding” in 2025 – a deal alleged by Moscow which maintains that the U.S. agreed to let Russia have the Donbas to end the war. “There was no agreement in Alaska,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated unequivocally.
Not surprisingly, Putin’s mouthpiece, Sergei Lavrov, criticized Rubio for saying there had been no deal in Alaska. The Russians coined the phrase “Anchorage understanding” and pushed it out everywhere as propaganda. But only the Kremlin used the term; no one else did. Then on June 25, Trump called Zelensky “courageous” and said he’s “doing pretty well.” The day before, a senior U.S. State Department official stated that he believes Ukraine is winning the war. Then a senior Ukrainian official said Trump privately urged Zelensky to act “more boldly” against Russia. And he’s publicly stated that “Russia should make a deal”.
Now Zelensky is actively seeking Donald Trump’s support, not because “now’s the time”, but because leverage is increasingly on Ukraine’s side. The threat of ballistic bombardments may force Putin into meaningful talks. Trump wants an immediate deal, and must push hard for a ceasefire, which Zelensky agreed to weeks ago. But any cessation must include ironclad security guarantees for Ukraine and solid financial backing for Kyiv from the U.S. and Europe. Indications are that Trump is very, very eager to reach a settlement and score a major “win” for himself. He needs to change the channel from Iran. Midterms loom, and he needs to stop Putin. So does the world.
