September 10, 2026
DIANE FRANCIS
Belarus is perched atop Ukraine, and the two countries are ethnically and historically entwined. Their people are East Slavic, as are Russians, but they were part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth for centuries, which made them distinct. Both countries were also part of the USSR until it collapsed in December 1991 following Ukraine’s departure. Then in 2014, the feisty Ukrainians staged a revolution against their pro-Russian president, and Moscow invaded, taking 7% of their territory, including Crimea. In 2022, Putin tried to take over all of Ukraine, and after five years, has bankrupted his economy, shattered his armed forces, and occupies only 19% of the country. By contrast, Belarusians staged a pro-democracy revolution in 2020, but it was crushed after Russia got involved and used extreme violence. Ever since, however, its President, Alexander Lukashenko, has fended off a total Russian takeover and, since 2022, has gotten away with refusing Putin’s demand to join his invasion of Ukraine.
Belarus is geopolitically important for many reasons. It is key to Russia’s War against Europe. Putin wants the Belarusian army involved with his forces to open a second, northern front against Ukraine and to hold several NATO nations (the Baltics and Poland) hostage along a lengthy stretch of border. Putin has had military bases in Belarus for years with only 2,000 troops, but recently installed dozens of tactical nuclear warheads and other powerful missile systems there. Russia also has drone stations along the Belarus-Ukraine border that guide its drone and missile attacks on Ukraine. But on June 19, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky demanded that Belarus dismantle these stations and gave President Lukashenko a week to do so. “I think a week will be enough for him to do it. If he doesn’t do it, we will,” said Zelensky in a press conference. By June 22, the stations were offline.
Putin’s brutal five-year war has placed Belarus and its leader between a rock and a hard place. So far, he has adeptly finessed his way through the political hazards by staying out of the war. Lukashenko’s carefully choreographed “neutrality” has also helped Ukraine and its allies. He has done so, despite being economically dependent on Russia, by refusing to order the Belarusian army to support the war. However, Russian military bases in Belarus have helped launch a few invasions and attacks against Ukraine. But now a frustrated Putin wants more assistance, and Lukashenko has impeded that with some impressive diplomatic gymnastics.
On June 26, Lukashenko caved in to Ukraine’s demands to shut down Russian drone stations. Then he was immediately summoned to closed-door meetings with Putin in remote Russia, where he was pressured to join Russia’s war against Ukraine. But on June 29, he flew to Beijing for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and the two declared their unity, according to a Chinese government press release: “President Xi Jinping stressed that China and Belarus should maintain strategic communication and further promote the high-level bilateral relationship to bring more benefits to the two peoples. China supports Belarus in safeguarding its national sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity, and in pursuing a development path befitting
its national conditions. China will continue to provide support for the development of Belarus to the best of its capability.”
The statement was extraordinary. Lukashenko not only fended off Russia’s pressure personally, but harnessed China’s support for its sovereignty and economic development even though it was a superpower aligned with Russia. This is because China has had its own assets and ambitions in the region for some time. After the two met in Beijing, Lukashenko returned to Minsk on July 6 and bluntly and publicly stated that his troops would not be sent to fight in Ukraine. At a military college, he said: “I stress once again, dear comrades, that nobody is going to send you into this bloodbath. We don’t need war; it’s bad that war is going on in Ukraine. We are supporters of solving matters peacefully.”
Lukashenko enlisted China’s help because for 13 years, Beijing has invested heavily in Belarus, building rail and road infrastructure designed to connect China to European markets. It was the Belt and Road Initiative that established a strong bilateral trade and investment relationship. For Belarus, this link with China has been important to reduce its dependence on Russia and also to obtain Chinese trade and technology to overcome Western sanctions. But now their partnership represents his lifeline against Russian demands to fight Ukraine.
Lukashenko’s strategy was also politically cunning because 97% of Belarusians oppose any direct involvement in the Ukraine war. If he balked at that, he would likely have another revolution or street protests on his hands. Estimates are that, since 2022, tens of thousands of Belarusians have secretly helped Ukraine or served in its armed forces. They also resent Russia’s military presence and the de facto occupation of their nation.
Zelensky also addressed the danger to Belarusians if they joined the war: “When Lukashenko says he does not want to be involved in the war, he should be honest, at least with his own people,” Zelensky said. “It is not only he who could be drawn into the war: his entire country could be dragged into it by Russia.” It was a message that resonates because Ukraine and Belarus suffered some of the highest human casualties and physical destruction of any regions in the world during World War II. Both were completely occupied by Nazi Germany and mostly destroyed because they were the primary battlegrounds of the Eastern Front. More than 10 million died, and the rest were subjugated by the Soviet Union for decades.
Now, once again, the two nation-states find themselves enmeshed in another brutal European war. Ukraine has been ravaged for five years but holds the line for Europe and NATO against all odds. Next in line is Belarus, which is compromised but not yet fully annexed by Moscow. Thus far, Lukashenko, who is half Ukrainian, juggles his difficult situation, which is not easy considering the circumstances. Belarus gets discounted oil and natural gas from Moscow and has also borrowed huge amounts from Russia, leaving the country without economic independence. It is virtually a full-fledged Russian satellite state and clearly in Putin’s sights as his next territorial acquisition.
China’s involvement is very significant. Beijing obviously believes that Russia’s war will wane and that both Ukraine and Belarus will be economic powerhouses and potential trading partners.
But to Ukrainians, Lukashenko is a sell-out to Moscow. “He had made an all-or-nothing gamble, like someone betting everything on a single number in a casino. He bet that Russia would destroy Ukraine,” said Zelensky. “He walked into the casino on the wrong day. He was certain he’d hit the jackpot. He hit nothing. The good news is how he differs from Putin, which is that, I think, he fully understands all the risks. If you know the war isn’t won, and you suddenly get pulled in further as an ally in this war — well, he has enough sense to understand that he shouldn’t get dragged into that.”
As for the future, Zelenskyy stated that good-neighborly relations between Ukraine and Belarus are possible, but only if both nations are genuinely independent from Moscow.
