t is highly doubtful that, having quarreled with Zelensky, Trump will find a common language with Putin. Bunkerny, obediently demonstrating some gestures towards Trump, is constantly forced to look back, towards the Far East (it is not for nothing that Shoigu flew there the other day), where Xi, squinting, is closely watching this. The Chinese have their own geopolitical strategic game, and it categorically does not foresee the rapprochement of the United States with their Moscow vassal.
And needless to say, Moscow and Beijing are closer than Moscow and Washington, because, as you know, “an old friend is better than two new ones.” In addition, China is not averse to taking the now, it seems, vacant place of a partner for the European Union after the United States, and this will further complicate the situation on the geopolitical chessboard.
Let’s not forget that Kim Jong-un is lurking behind the Chinese, and there is also Iran – the main enemy of the Americans and an ally (ally?) of Moscow. For Tehran, the rapprochement of Russia with the Yankees is a pain in the ass, because, among other things, there is a threat that Israel – the main enemy of Iran – will hide under the umbrella of this sweet couple. At least, some recent positioning of Israel indicates that Tel Aviv is keeping its nose to the wind and is ready to be a “servant of two masters” with benefit for itself. That is, as we see, the serpent is still the same, and “not everything is so clear-cut”.
It is clear that Trump will not be able to support Putin openly, because almost all of Europe (with the exception of two famous freaks) is against this. And it will not be easy for Trump, even despite his style of a rag-tag bulldog, to explain to the Americans why he supports Russia in the war against Ukraine. After all, most Americans are against Russia, and for Trump it is very important that he is praised and supported, and not called a fool or a traitor.
Trump needs a victory to declare himself a winner and a peacemaker. At least some victory. Russia cannot give (gift) this victory to Trump, that is, it will not concede anything in the war, because Putin will not retreat a single step from his crazy “targets of the ESV.” That is, Trump counted on “peace” at the expense of Ukraine, which, in his opinion, faced with the threat of being without American support, will be forced, remaining the “weak link”, to meekly accept Trump’s plan. (By the way, we still do not know what it says).
I was counting, but something went wrong in the Oval Office of the White House, famous since the days of Clinton and Monica Lewinsky…
Even less chance of an understanding between them regarding an agreement on allowing Americans to develop Russian rare earth materials. Further talks there will not go. (The only exception is minerals in the Ukrainian territories temporarily occupied by the racists. But no American will invest in these territories, which are being shot at length and breadth by Ukrainian troops). This is too sensitive a topic for the inhabitants of the swamps, because they supposedly started the “ESVEO” in Ukraine in order to drive away the “curse of NATO and stupid Americans” from the Russian borders, and here, it turns out, they are going to invite them themselves. Most likely, Putin will not allow Americans into the Russian depths, but will go around the corner and lead Trump by the nose.
What will happen next? Will the Americans refuse to provide military and financial support to Ukraine? Unfortunately, such a scenario is possible. And this will complicate our situation, although, judging by the reports from the war, it is not critical. Ours are increasing the production of their own weapons, especially drones. Europe will lend a shoulder. We should not forget that Russia has also become quite “worn out”, fighting more and more with cannon fodder and less and less with military equipment.
It is important how Europe will behave. Will it finally leave kindergarten/warm bath and realize that everything started “in an adult way”? Perhaps the Europeans will immediately begin to create some kind of defense alliance with the participation of Ukraine? Will the syndrome of dependence on “Uncle Sam” still work and further talk will not work?
The coming days will show the prospects and dynamics. As wild as it may sound to some, perhaps the one who loses more from what happened is not Ukraine, but (the almighty) Trump. And we will soon see it. It is likely that Trump will be forced to return to negotiations with Ukraine, but some time must pass for this. And it is unknown what the prerequisites for the negotiations will be.
Mykhailo Sidorzhevsky, “The Desna Wave”
