Recent history has shown that the leadership of the collective West can be totally unprepared for major political events and all their implications. A case in point is that of American President George H. W. Bush Sr., a person not unfamiliar to his intelligence services. And yet he, and the USA, were caught off-guard by the collapse of the USSR. In fact, President Bush placed himself on the wrong side of history and became the laughingstock of international diplomacy with his “Chicken Kyiv” speech of August 1, 1991. He attempted to preserve the life of the Evil Empire even as it lay on its death bed. This was a clear case of a political misreading on the level of the Monty Python “Dead Parrot” skit. For President Bush the Soviet imperial parrot was not dead but was just resting!
Today, I am afraid Western politicians are failing again to see the play three moves ahead on Zbigniew Brzezinski’s political chessboard.
Vladimir Putin is finished. The day is soon coming when he will not be the Czar of the Kremlin. Whether his death is violent or natural or simply political, soon he will not be the one ruling the Russian Federation.
It is important to understand his role in this empire. Putin is a keystone that is holding together a jumble of opposing forces. He is holding together the various criminal mafias that had surfaced after 1991. He is holding at bay several private mercenary armies. Prigozhin’s Wagner was far from the only one! At one time I had counted seven such private militias before I read that the number was actually twenty six! Today, Kadyrov’s may be the most visible, but even Shoigu and Gerasimov were known to have their personal forces. Putin is holding together several competing oligarchic business clans, (some of whom also sponsor private militias), through an enforced central loyalty. Putin has dozens of regional governors that he has appointed, who personally owe him their loyalty. And finally, the personal imperial cult that he created held together the centrifugal forces of a dozen ethnic nationalities.
Remove the keystone and the structure falls. The fissures within this Russian Federation can be seen as the layers of a Photoshop picture. There is a layer of fissures between criminal gangs. There is second a layer of fissures between private militias. There is a third layer of fissures between business clans. There is a fourth layer of fissures between various ethnic groups. And finally, there are dozens of regional governors that will no longer be beholden to the man that appointed them. Wherever these layered fissures overlap, a fracture will occur. Now add to that fracturing the return of a million armed men, angry, amoral and demoralized.
A case in point is Ramzan Kadyrov’s Chechnya. He is a criminalized governor oligarch that owes a personal loyalty only to Putin, with his own private army, governing a separate nation that has already tasted independence. That is four fissures overlapping! Chechnya will be the first to reclaim independence, but not the last. Many if not all such regions are chafing at the imperial policy of exporting their wealth to the metropole, while sending their men to die in human meat waves in Ukraine.
Among a dozen or so regions that will seek independence are Tatarstan (had already declared independence in 1990, ratified by referendum in 1992); Bashkortostan, Karelia, Ingushetia, Dagestan, Kalmykia, Yakutia/Sakha Republic, Buryatia, Primorskyi Krai, Sakhalin, Khabarovsk, Amur Oblast’, and others. Note that a fracturing along these lines is much preferable to continent wide gangland warfare.
A swift reaction by the West’s diplomacy will be crucial to ensuring relatively peaceful divorces in place of continental chaos. The swift recognition and guarantee of sovereignty of such independent states will minimize the risk of wars of reconquest. Trade and economic relations would stabilize these new countries. There is no doubt that China is preparing for this eventuality. It is crucial that they see their interests best served by such independent countries in trade relationships, rather than by a military occupation of Siberia. Regions on the coast or on the Russian Federation’s borders could seek to become “protectorates” of their neighbors. This includes Karelia with Finland, Sakhalin with Japan, Kamchatka-Chukotka-Magadan with the USA, Kaliningrad with Germany or Lithuania.
Source: Wiki – Tavork Russia
The governors of the various regions will be key to promoting a peaceful transition to independence by the various regions. Support for Independence will be in both their personal and their region’s best interest. The following links to a list of the current governors. We must be prepared for what comes after Ukraine’s victory!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_heads_of_federal_subjects_of_Russia
