David Kirichenko
May 16, 2025
The Hill
A common talking point from President Trump is that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “has no cards.” This is not only untrue, but there are clear signs that Ukraine is growing stronger technologically.
This is also why, since the start of negotiations, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been fixated on the demilitarization of the Ukrainian army. As the war shifts into a high-intensity, technology-driven phase, the cost of Russian offensives will only grow.
In over three years of war, Russia has lost nearly 1 million men who have been killed or injured in its attempts to conquer Ukraine. With time running out for Putin, now in his 70s, he is likely to grow even more desperate in his attempts to revive the dying Russian empire.
Even when Congress blocked aid and Trump shut off the flow of weapons, Ukraine adapted, relying on drones to hold the line. It was costly for Ukraine at times in places like Avidivka. But Ukraine is now building a drone wall — creating a deadly no-man’s land that dramatically raises the cost of every Russian assault.
Meanwhile, Putin is also losing control over the war narrative. This became particularly clear in August 2024, when he was forced to explain a Ukrainian offensive inside Russia itself, after Ukrainian forces seized nearly 1,200 square kilometers of Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian forces continue to fight in both the Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts within Russia.
Despite U.S. weapons restrictions that have been forcing Ukraine to fight with one hand tied behind its back throughout the war, Ukraine has built a formidable arsenal of long-range drones and missiles. In recent months, Ukrainian drones have struck deeper into Russia, targeting the oil refineries, airfields and infrastructure sustaining Russia’s war effort.
Ukraine demonstrated its growing strike capabilities in March by launching hundreds of drones at Moscow, in what the city’s mayor called the “largest drone attack” of the war. Russia’s air defenses are struggling to adapt to this new threat.
Putin pretends he isn’t bothered, but secretly acknowledges how serious a threat Ukraine’s long-range strikes are now. Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova even went as far as to accuse Zelensky of “literally planning terrorist attacks on air.” Putin is losing his mind that he cannot even protect Moscow from being attacked.
Retired Lt. General Keith Kellogg, President Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, said Russia isn’t winning — after three years, they’ve gained meters, not miles.
Behind the facade, Moscow is growing desperate, which is why it agreed to an initial energy sector ceasefire. Ukraine, having adapted after years of Russian strikes, recently dealt a major
blow by knocking out 10 percent of Russia’s oil refining capacity with drone attacks. The U.S. is already studying Ukraine’s success with its domestically built long-range drones.
The war has spurred a dramatic transformation in Ukraine’s defense industry. Where once Ukraine relied heavily on foreign arms, it now produces 40 percent of its own weaponry. “Ukraine will always need its own strong weapons so that we can have our own strong Ukrainian state,” Zelensky said recently. “Ukraine will always need its own technological superiority so that Russia knows we will respond to every attack.”
Today, Ukraine produces several millions drones, supplying soldiers with about 200,000 drones per month. These drones now account for up to 80 percent of Russian casualties. On the battlefield, the impact is clear. One soldier told me he hasn’t seen heavy armor in a long time and that “everyday, we see five to eight assaults using motorcycles.” In addition to motorcycles, Russia has deployed low-mobility troops with canes, crutches and even wheelchairs, sometimes abandoning them as bait for Ukrainian drones. In Kursk, Ukrainian drones filmed Russian forces abandoning a wounded African mercenary with his hands tied.
Intercepted recordings and battlefield footage suggest Russian commanders are forcing wounded and fearful troops, some on crutches, to advance under threat of being shot if they retreat in Russia’s famed meat-grinder tactics. Commanders also steal supplies from their own soldiers, shoot them if they return, as discipline is maintained less through loyalty than through coercion and fear of retribution.
Even Russian pro-war bloggers are sounding the alarm. Sviatoslav Golikov recently dismissed Putin’s threats to “finish off” Ukraine, warning that Russia’s exhausted army lacks the strength and could collapse under pressure.
Russian military analysts also warn that the Kremlin elite remains dangerously disconnected from the scale of the army’s losses and the grim realities on the ground. One bluntly admitted: “We cannot afford to continue fighting in this manner. We simply do not have enough population for that type of military tactics.”
Russia’s economy, once resilient, is now faltering. Growth has plummeted from around 5 percent to near zero since late 2024. Trump’s tariff war has rocked oil prices, which also exposed how vulnerable Russia is.
Despite the Kremlin’s charm offensive toward Trump, its desperation is evident. Moscow is trying to shift U.S.-Russia relations away from focusing on Ukraine by dangling business opportunities — within a deeply corrupt environment — as an incentive. Even former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has publicly warned of Russia’s possible disintegration. Another Russian commentator added, “I feel sorry for us. We’re being beaten.”
But sooner or later, Trump will realize that Russian and U.S. interests cannot converge. Putin will never give up the dream of taking Kyiv. If Trump stopped bullying the victim and instead took a hard line against Putin, Moscow might finally feel real pressure. The world saw how quickly an authoritarian regime can crumble under pressure, as Syria’s Bashar al-Assad demonstrated in December.
Putin’s own growing fear is clear as he is more paranoid than ever. During a March visit to Murmansk, his security team was seen physically searching honor guard soldiers for hidden weapons. Days later, one of Putin’s presidential limousines caught fire near Russia’s FSB headquarters. And by late April, a car bomb had killed Russian Gen. Yaroslav Moskalik.
Putin may be trying to project strength by mobilizing more men and launching a spring counteroffensive, but it only highlights how desperate the Kremlin has become, trading Russian lives for mere inches of territory. Meanwhile, Ukraine is gaining leverage — and the Trump administration would be wise to recognize it.
David Kirichenko is an Associate Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society..
